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SHOCK ABSORBER

By: Darlene Creamer     15th November 2024 Apart from Eskom itself, it will be one-way traffic when the National Energy Regulator of South Africa hosts public hearings into the State-owned utility’s latest revenue application between November 18 and December 4. Business, local government, labour an civil society organisations will all be... →

SHOCK ABSORBER: Apart from #Eskom itself, it will be one-way traffic when the National Energy Regulator of South Africa hosts public hearings into the State-owned utility’s latest revenue application between November 18 and December 4. Business, local government, labour and civil society organisations will all be demanding the regulator acts as a shock absorber against the prospect of a hike next year of over 36%.

GEO-JUGGLING

By: Darlene Creamer     8th November 2024 Hardly a week goes by without at least one headline pointing to an issue that could result in the collapse of the Government of National Unity (GNU), which has been widely welcomed at home and abroad. Many of these are domestic, from basic education to health. In a context where geopolitical... →

GEO-JUGGLING: Hardly a week goes by without at least one headline pointing to an issue that could result in the collapse of the Government of National Unity (GNU), which has been widely welcomed at home and abroad. Many of these are domestic, from basic education to health. In a context where geopolitical tensions are on the rise, however, the divergent worldviews of key parties are also emerging as potential triggers for schism.

INFLATION TARGET

By: Darlene Creamer     1st November 2024 South Africa’s official inflation-target band is 3% to 6%, but South African Reserve Bank governor Lesetja Kganyago has made it clear for some time now that his target is actually the mid-point. In a recent speech, Kganyago acknowledged concern about the employment and growth costs of pursuing a... →

INFLATION TARGET: South Africa’s official inflation-target band is 3% to 6%, but South African Reserve Bank governor Lesetja Kganyago has made it clear for some time now that his target is actually the mid-point. In a recent speech, Kganyago acknowledged concern about the employment and growth costs of pursuing a lower target. However, he went on to quote studies indicating that there had been “little or no cost to getting inflation to 4.5%”, the takeaway being that he has no intention of applying the brakes while he is behind the monetary-policy wheel.

SORE THUMB

By: Darlene Creamer     25th October 2024 Business and the markets have reacted positively to South Africa’s Government of National Unity (GNU). Cooperation also seems to be the order of the day in many departments and provinces. South Africa’s economic heartland of Gauteng, however, is sticking out like a sore thumb in its overt and... →

SORE THUMB: Business and the markets have reacted positively to South Africa’s Government of National Unity (GNU). Cooperation also seems to be the order of the day in many departments and provinces. South Africa’s economic heartland of Gauteng, however, is sticking out like a sore thumb in its overt and covert moves to undermine the GNU. Given the minority-government set-up in the province, it’s a high-stakes political game.

NEW TARGET

By: Darlene Creamer     18th October 2024 There is scepticism about the current close relationship between government and organised business, but there is also broadbased acceptance that their collaborative efforts in the areas of Covid and loadshedding have been pretty effective. In cementing the relationship under the Government of... →

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HIGH-WIRE ACT

By: Darlene Creamer     11th October 2024 The lack of grid capacity has emerged as a key constraint to South Africa’s renewable-energy ambitions. While the National Transmission Company South Africa has a plan, it lacks the balance sheet to go it alone. The problem is that there is still no obvious agreement on the model that could be... →

HIGH-WIRE ACT: The lack of grid capacity has emerged as a key constraint to South Africa’s renewable-energy ambitions. While the National Transmission Company South Africa has a plan, it lacks the balance sheet to go it alone. The problem is that there is still no obvious agreement on the model that could be used to add capacity through Independent Power Transmission projects. Policymakers will have to show skill and agility if they are to navigate this high-wire balancing act.

TARIFF TUG OF WAR

By: Darlene Creamer     4th October 2024 With the official release of Eskom’s allowable revenue application, which confirms that it is indeed seeking a hefty 36% hike next year, all eyes will now turn to the National Energy Regulator of South Africa. The upcoming public hearings in November and December are likely to be robust and... →

TARIFF TUG OF WAR: With the official release of Eskom’s allowable revenue application, which confirms that it is indeed seeking a hefty 36% hike next year, all eyes will now turn to the National Energy Regulator of South Africa. The upcoming public hearings in November and December are likely to be robust and hostile, particularly for Eskom, which won’t receive much support, if any, even from government.

FISSION AGAIN

By: Darlene Creamer     27th September 2024 Electricity and Energy Minister Dr Kgosientsho Ramokgopa is the latest government champion of nuclear. He has described opposition to the technology as unscientific and has insisted that South Africa should be gearing up to add more capacity beyond Koeberg. The question that this latest ‘fission... →

FISSION AGAIN: Electricity and Energy Minister Dr Kgosientsho Ramokgopa is the latest government champion of nuclear. He has described opposition to the technology as unscientific and has insisted that South Africa should be gearing up to add more capacity beyond Koeberg. The question that this latest ‘fission expedition’ needs to answer is not the science, however, but rather the hard-nosed technoeconomics.

GROWTH RETHINK

By: Darlene Creamer     20th September 2024 A combination of external shocks and internal own goals has left South Africa in a low-growth trap. With the Government of National Unity now prioritising inclusive growth, organised business believes it is also time to rethink the country’s growth strategy. “South Africa must aspire to become a... →

GROWTH RETHINK

WRECKING BALL

By: Darlene Creamer     13th September 2024 Extortion rackets are in the news, but construction sites have for too long been especially vulnerable to so-called business forums, who greedily distort well-intentioned localisation policies to the point where contractors are often forced to abandon the sites. If South Africa has any chance of... →

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TARIFF TUSSLE

By: Darlene Creamer     6th September 2024 South Africans are gearing up for another hostile round of public hearings into Eskom’s revenue application for the coming three financial years. Most of the attention will be on the potential for another hefty tariff hike, in the unlikely scenario that the application is fully approved by the... →

TARIFF TUSSLE

MAYORAL CHAIRS

By: Darlene Creamer     30th August 2024 There has been little public enthusiasm shown following the election of Dada Morero as Johannesburg’s mayor for a second stint. He is the eleventh mayor since 2016 and the city has become the poster child for the perils of coalition politics, and where a lack of formal guardrails allows for... →

MAYORAL CHAIRS

ORANGE SQUEEZE

By: Darlene Creamer     23rd August 2024 South Africa has, for the first time, requested the establishment of two dispute panels under the World Trade Organisation’s dispute settlement system to review measures affecting the import of South African citrus into the European Union (EU). The dispute relates to the approach being taken by... →

ORANGE SQUEEZE

ADDED PRESSURE

By: Darlene Creamer     16th August 2024 The world has become a true pressure cooker both geo-politically and in the domain of domestic politics. The deadly drums of war can be heard across several regions, elections are often not only competitive but violent and in some cases stolen, riots have replaced protests, xenophobia is growing... →

ADDED PRESSURE

DEMOCRATIC RELAY

By: Darlene Creamer     9th August 2024 Races have not been confined to the Olympic tracks, fields and pools this year, with nearly 100 countries having also held elections. Many of these polls have been highly competitive and unpredictable, including South Africa’s, where no single party secured an outright majority. Without question,... →

DEMOCRATIC RELAY: Races have not been confined to the Olympic tracks, fields and pools this year, with nearly 100 countries having also held elections. Many of these polls have been highly competitive and unpredictable, including South Africa’s, where no single party secured an outright majority. Without question, the gaze of the world has now turned to the US, which will be holding its tightly fought contest in November and where the stakes for Americans and the rest of the world could not be higher.

CLOSED SHOP

By: Darlene Creamer     2nd August 2024 The objection lodged by Eskom’s distribution unit to the issuance of licences to private traders in areas where it currently holds a licence has sent shockwaves through the nascent industry (see also page 28). The move also raises serious questions about the potential for the utility to continue... →

CLOSED SHOP

NOT FIT FOR PURPOSE

By: Darlene Creamer     26th July 2024 Municipal electricity distributors are facing a perfect storm of rising wholesale electricity tariffs, falling demand from affluent households and businesses that have invested in rooftop generation, aging network infrastructure, skills shortages, electricity theft and a revenue model that does... →

NOT FIT FOR PURPOSE: Municipal electricity distributors are facing a perfect storm of rising wholesale electricity tariffs, falling demand from affluent households and businesses that have invested in rooftop generation, aging network infrastructure, skills shortages, electricity theft and a revenue model that does not fully reflect network and service costs. An urgent intervention is required, or power disruptions will continue despite the recent stabilisation of generation.

GROWTH LEVER

By: Darlene Creamer     19th July 2024 There are indications that the Presidency and the National Treasury would like the next phase of Operation Vulindlela to move beyond a focus on binding constraints, such as loadshedding and a collapsing freight logistics network, to growth. The details of how this will be pursued are not yet... →

GROWTH LEVER: There are indications that the Presidency and the National Treasury would like the next phase of Operation Vulindlela to move beyond a focus on binding constraints, such as loadshedding and a collapsing freight logistics network, to growth. The details of how this will be pursued are not yet clear, but it is also possible this ambition could be overwhelmed by emerging binding constraints in areas such as water supply and failing municipal services.

CHAIRS AT THE TABLE

By: Darlene Creamer     12th July 2024 South Africa’s government of national unity is unquestionably the best outcome from what was a potentially treacherous political moment. Given the number of issues and interests at stake, it is also no surprise that the number of Ministerial seats at the Cabinet table has increased. It is... →

CHAIRS AT THE TABLE: South Africa’s government of national unity is unquestionably the best outcome from what was a potentially treacherous political moment. Given the number of issues and interests at stake, it is also no surprise that the number of Ministerial seats at the Cabinet table has increased. It is nevertheless ironic, given that some of those occupying them were among the most vociferous critics of the previous ‘bloated’ Cabinet.

ACTION POTION

By: Darlene Creamer     5th July 2024 To succeed, the government of national unity will be a case of ongoing negotiation and daily give and take. It will be crucial, therefore, that visible progress be made where there is either full agreement or at least “sufficient consensus”. Here, the reforms under way through Operation... →

ACTION POTION

HIGH-WIRE ACT

By: Darlene Creamer     28th June 2024 The maturity shown by South Africa’s political parties following what was the country’s most competitive elections since the advent of democracy was truly impressive. The fact that a government of national unity could be established so quickly helped settle frayed nerves and anxious markets.... →

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PORT PRESSURES

By: Darlene Creamer     21st June 2024 The World Bank Port Index, which ranked South African ports near to the bottom of the global pile, is backward-looking and is, thus, not fully reflective of recent efforts made to address bottlenecks. Nevertheless, the port system still has a long way to go not only to recover from State capture... →

PORT PRESSURES

COALITION ANGST

By: Darlene Creamer     14th June 2024 Coalitions were always the most likely scenario for a country that selects political representatives using a system based on proportional representation. Nevertheless, actually moving from a majority government to one based on coalitions or cooperation is still unsettling. Doubly so, given the... →

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TARIFF THREAT

By: Darlene Creamer     7th June 2024 The reforms under way in the freight rail sector are advancing at an impressive clip and should soon open the system to new private operators. However, there are warnings of a prohibitively high tariff outcome should the methodology outlined in the draft Network Statement be introduced. →

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AFTER THE STORM

By: Darlene Creamer     31st May 2024 The election storm, which has just past, carried with it developments that were at times entertaining, at times revealing and at times downright disconcerting. Now that it has passed, attention will turn to the governance arrangements that will follow in its wake. →

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DEVASTATING

By: Darlene Creamer     24th May 2024 The deadly collapse of a building in George while under construction is simply devastating for the families of the workers who perished. It has also raised a number of questions about the state – including the state of safety – of South Africa’s building and construction industry. The industry... →

DEVASTATING: The deadly collapse of a building in George while under construction is simply devastating for the families of the workers who perished. It has also raised a number of questions about the state – including the state of safety – of South Africa’s building and construction industry. The industry today is almost unrecognisable from what it was before so many of the country’s listed building majors either closed due to financial distress or exited the sector.

THE OTHER POLL

By: Darlene Creamer     17th May 2024 There has been much discussion about South Africa’s attractiveness to investors following BHP’s bid for Anglo American’s non-South African assets and confirmation that Shell will be disinvesting from its downstream activities in the country. While these developments have more to do with corporate... →

THE OTHER POLL

HEAT IS ON

By: Darlene Creamer     10th May 2024 Reaction to BHP’s bid price for Anglo American may be cool, but it has definitely ignited renewed interest in mega mining mergers. It has also brought to the fore the importance of copper to the emerging energy transition and, more worryingly, investor weariness of South Africa as a mining... →

HEAT IS ON

COALITION MATHS

By: Darlene Creamer     3rd May 2024 With the polls suggesting that the African National Congress is unlikely to secure an outright majority in this year’s election, much attention is being given to coalition politics. While this is arguably an inevitable outcome of our proportional-representation system, many voters are rightfully... →

COALITION MATHS: With the polls suggesting that the African National Congress is unlikely to secure an outright majority in this year’s election, much attention is being given to coalition politics. While this is arguably an inevitable outcome of our proportional-representation system, many voters are rightfully concerned, given the poor performance of many municipal coalitions.

STILL FLYING

By: Darlene Creamer     26th April 2024 Years of State capture, corruption and ongoing crime and violence have left deep scars and have taken most of the gloss of any celebrations marking 30 years of democracy. Nevertheless, South Africa is still a significantly better place than it was before 1994 and has made some strides towards... →

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STORM WARNING:

By: Darlene Creamer     19th April 2024 The storms that lashed the Cape earlier this month caused devastating damage, with many still picking up the pieces. One can only hope that the coming election storm is far more benign, but some of the pre-election rhetoric is cause for concern, while some pre-election coalition pacts seem to be... →

The storms that lashed the Cape earlier this month caused devastating damage, with many still picking up the pieces. One can only hope that the coming election storm is far more benign, but some of the pre-election rhetoric is cause for concern, while some pre-election coalition pacts seem to be facing real headwinds.

UNDERWHELMED

By: Darlene Creamer     12th April 2024 While voters will receive three quite different looking ballots on May 29, this seeming increase in choice is not necessarily translating into greater excitement. Yes, some independents will feature for the first time and, yes, there are some interesting new parties. But with some form of... →

UNDERWHELMED: While voters will receive three quite different looking ballots on May 29, this seeming increase in choice is not necessarily translating into greater excitement. Yes, some independents will feature for the first time and, yes, there are some interesting new parties. But with some form of coalition likely, voter enthusiasm has been dampened by the poor performance of such arrangements at the municipal level. Before treating the day as a day off, however, South Africans would do well to remember the sacrifices made to ensure that all adult citizens have the right to vote.

SHOCKING

By: Darlene Creamer     5th April 2024 As expected, stakeholder responses to the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy’s gas-heavy Integrated Resource Plan 2023 has been far from complementary. While still a draft, some commentators believe it should simply be recalled, given its outlandish assumptions, lack of transparency and... →

SHOCKING: As expected, stakeholder responses to the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy’s gas-heavy Integrated Resource Plan 2023 has been far from complementary. While still a draft, some commentators believe it should simply be recalled, given its outlandish assumptions, lack of transparency and utter failure to craft a credible response to ongoing loadshedding.

WATER WORRIES

By: Darlene Creamer     29th March 2024 Gauteng’s three metropolitan councils are now failing regularly to ensure that their residents and businesses have a constant supply of water. The massive outages in March brought to the fore not only the poor state of the province’s water infrastructure, which is prone to leaks, but also... →

WATER WORRIES: Gauteng’s three metropolitan councils are now failing regularly to ensure that their residents and businesses have a constant supply of water. The massive outages in March brought to the fore not only the poor state of the province’s water infrastructure, which is prone to leaks, but also worrying capacity problems at Rand Water, both physical and human – epitomised for many by that notorious “closed valve” that prevented vital water flows for days on end.

EXTREME PRESSURE

By: Darlene Creamer     22nd March 2024 The Competition Commission’s Media and Digital Platforms Market Inquiry has thrown some light on the existential crisis being faced by South Africa’s media. Part of the problem lies in the weak economy, but a large portion arises from the disruption associated with the rise of giant digital... →

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GAS CLIFF

By: Darlene Creamer     15th March 2024 Warnings of a gas day zero in 2026 are alarming, but not new. There has however, been very little progress on possible remedies. Disputes over gas pricing have arguably made cooperation difficult, but that is what is desperately needed. All eyes are now on the government-led task team set up to... →

GAS CLIFF: Warnings of a gas day zero in 2026 are alarming, but not new. There has, however, been very little progress on possible remedies. Disputes over gas pricing have arguably made cooperation difficult, but that is what is desperately needed. All eyes are now on the government-led task team set up to develop a joint strategy and whether that strategy will be sufficient to ensure a so-called seamless transition to non-Sasol gas.

LOADSHEDDING GRIEF

By: Darlene Creamer     8th March 2024 There is grave peril in forecasting any improvement to the loadshedding outlook, as President Cyril Ramaphosa found recently when Eskom declare Stage 6 days after he suggested in his State of the Nation Address that the worst was over. Likewise, the credibility of Electricity Minister Kgosientsho... →

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OWN GOALS

By: Darlene Creamer     1st March 2024 The 2024 Budget has, once again, highlighted what happens when government scores one own goal after another. True, there have been some disruptive external shocks, most recently the Covid lockdowns and the energy shock associated with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. However, far too many of the... →

OWN GOALS: The 2024 Budget has, once again, highlighted what happens when government scores one own goal after another. True, there have been some disruptive external shocks, most recently the Covid lockdowns and the energy shock associated with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. However, far too many of the current fiscal problems stem from doing the wrong thing consistently over a long period of time. Turning the crisis around requires more than the penalty-saving heroics of our Bafana Bafana keeper.
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