Sub-Saharan Africa’s mobile industry GDP can grow to $170bn

The GDP of sub-Saharan Africa’s mobile industry is projected to reach $170-billion by 2030 – if key connectivity barriers are addressed – with opportunities in AI, 5G and satellite connectivity set to bridge a 60% use gap.

In 2023, the mobile industry contributed $140-billion, or 7%, to the GDP of the region, with mobile connectivity a key driver of digital transformation and socioeconomic growth, according to GSMA’s 'Mobile Economy Sub-Saharan Africa 2024 report.

“Our findings this year reveal both the extraordinary potential and the challenges facing sub-Saharan Africa's mobile ecosystem,” said GSMA sub-Saharan Africa head Angela Wamola.

Mobile technology is essential in supporting development goals across key sectors 'such as healthcare, education and finance, and driving economic growth by expanding Internet access and digital services.

The latest report shows that mobile Internet penetration in sub-Saharan Africa reached 27% by the end of 2023, yet a substantial use gap of 60% remains.

“This gap represents millions who live within network coverage but face barriers to get online, such as device affordability, digital skills deficits and concerns around online security.”

According to the report, globally, 3.1-billion people – 39% of the global population – are impacted by the use gap, and sub-Saharan Africa is the least connected region, with the largest use gap worldwide.

In addition to connectivity challenges, the region also faces high operating costs, inflationary pressures and energy price volatility.

However, the adoption of 4G continues to rise in the region and is forecast to account for 50% of total connections by 2030, overtaking 3G as the primary technology.

5G adoption is also accelerating and forecast to contribute $10-billion to the region’s economy in 2030, accounting for 6% of mobile’s total economic impact.

While 5G adoption remains in its early stages, it is projected to reach 17% of total connections by 2030, primarily in South Africa, Nigeria and Kenya.

“Additionally, 5G Fixed Wireless Access is gaining traction as a primary broadband solution in countries such as Angola, South Africa, Nigeria, Kenya, Zambia and Zimbabwe, addressing demand for high-speed connectivity in underserved areas,” the report indicated.

As well as growing 4G and 5G momentum, other key trends shaping the mobile ecosystem include market consolidation, aerial connectivity and satellite partnerships, generative AI and GSMA Open Gateway, all of which present innovative solutions to bridge gaps across sectors.

“Broader API solutions, such as GSMA Open Gateway, are poised to enhance digital security and simplify services as these initiatives expand regionally.”

South Africa became the first country in sub-Saharan Africa to implement GSMA Open Gateway APIs, focusing on fraud prevention and security with number verification and SIM swap APIs.

Generative AI is also expected to contribute up to $1.5-trillion to Africa’s economy by 2030, with mobile operators increasingly using AI for customer engagement and network optimisation.

The report cites examples of MTN and Vodacom, for instance, which are deploying AI-powered initiatives to enhance operational efficiency, despite a shortage of skilled AI professionals in the region.

“To fully realise the benefits of connectivity, it is essential for operators, policymakers and stakeholders to address affordability barriers, support infrastructure expansion and foster collaborations that drive digital inclusion and economic impact,” said Wamola.

The report advocates for a series of critical actions to ensure sustainable growth and digital inclusion, including affordability reforms, revitalised Universal Service Funds and progressive spectrum policies.