South African mining production up 3.4% y/y in September

JOHANNESBURG (miningweekly.com) – South African mining production expanded by 3.4% year-on-year in September, following an upwardly revised 0.1% increase in August.

On a seasonally adjusted month-on-month basis, production rose 0.9% in September and was driven by a solid 5.1% gain in coal production and a 2.6% month-on-month rise in gold production.

Production of iron-ore and platinum-group metals (PGMs) slipped by 1.8% and 0.7% respectively in September and were the largest drags on headline production growth.

BNP economist Jeffrey Schultz said, encouragingly, in year-on-year terms, the largest contributors to the improved headline production performance came from the key mining subsectors of PGMs, with production 10.5% higher year-on-year, iron-ore, with 11.7% higher year-on-year production and coal, with production 6.8% higher year-on-year.

Gold production fell 7% in September year-on-year, following August’s 8.4% contraction.

On a quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted and annualised basis, mining production growth managed to remain in positive territory in the third quarter, climbing 6.2% – though this is somewhat slower than the more than 20% quarter-on-quarter production growth momentum recorded.

“The mining sector looks to have registered its second consecutive month of positive contributions to third-quarter gross domestic product growth – something which it hasn’t been able to achieve in 18 months,” Schultz said.

He added that the avoidance of strike activity in the platinum sector this year following an amicable three-year wage agreement reached recently, should go some way in providing the much-needed stability the industry needs.

“However, ongoing worries related to mineral policy amid what looks likely to be another bumpy ride for commodity prices, excluding gold, in the wake of the US presidential election outcome, mean that South Africa’s mining sector still has many hurdles ahead to clear,” he warned.