Nickel leads metals higher as Goldman sees $12 000 in six months

SHANGHAI – Nickel led metals higher, climbing for a third day, as Goldman Sachs Group Inc. predicted an almost 20% jump in prices in the next six months because of supply cuts in the Philippines, the biggest ore producer.

The metal added as much as 1.4% to $10 190 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange and traded at $10,115 by 1:23 p.m. in Shanghai. Nickel will reach $12 000 a ton in six months, according to a baseline scenario from the bank that assumes a quarter of output in the Philippines is lost over the period. Shanghai futures rose 0.4% after a 3.2% increase Monday.

The Philippines has put mines on notice that operations falling short of environmental and welfare standards will be shut down, driving prices to the highest in eight months on July 4. Nickel will advance to $11 000 a ton in three months, Goldman said in its report dated July 11 raising its full-year average forecast by 15% to $9 739.

“The results of the audit will be critical to the outlook for nickel,” bank analysts including Jeff Currie and Max Layton wrote, noting there appears to be no readily available alternative source of ore for China, the biggest producer and consumer.

Aluminum swung between gains and losses and last traded 0.2% lower at $1 648 a ton in London. Alcoa Inc. the largest US producer, raised its forecast for global supply and cut its projection for a deficit. Copper was little changed in London and 0.2% lower in Shanghai.