Iron-ore’s party gives way to hangover as China stockpiles surge

SINGAPORE – For iron-ore, it is the morning after the night before. Prices have given up most of the gains inspired by Donald Trump’s surprise win and a speculative frenzy in China, with a surge in port stockpiles in the top user reminding investors that fundamentals still count.

“The speed of the recent rally leaves it open to the charge that price action has been too much, too fast,” Dane Davis, an analyst at Barclays in New York, said in a note that asked “After the party....the hangover?” The balance of risk for iron as well as copper is skewed to the downside as the dollar strengthens and the effects of Trump’s win wear off, according to Davis.

iron-ore prices barreled to a two-year high this month as investors celebrated Trump’s victory on the outlook for infrastructure spending at the same time that commodities futures volumes surged in China. The rally has been thrown into reverse after mainland exchanges raised charges to quell the fervor, and the US currency advanced on prospects for higher interest rates. The port holdings data have added to the bearish mix, reinforcing signs of ample supply.

“As it did earlier this year, China has cracked down on speculation in the iron-ore market,” Davis said. “With these stricter standards in place, the iron-ore price should continue to ease off recent highs, though it may find support from continued highs in other steel raw materials, such as met coal, and a domestic steel market that looks to set to grow production in 2016.”

TRUMP'S WIN
In Asia, the SGX AsiaClear contract was at $67.13 a ton at 2:05 p.m. in Singapore on Monday. That follows a 15% drop last week, and puts prices little above the $64.78 close on Nov. 8, the last day of trade of before Trump’s win. On the Dalian Commodity Exchange, futures are at 562 yuan ($81) a ton, compared with the 519 yuan close on Nov. 8, and the Nov. 14 high of 627 yuan.

Benchmark spot with 62% content at Qingdao fell 8.8% last week to $72.79 on Friday, capping the first weekly drop in almost two months, according to Metal Bulletin Ltd. Prices, which remain 67% higher in 2016, may average $58 this quarter and $50 next year, according to Barclays.

As prices sank last week, port inventories in China climbed to the highest since September 2014, according to Shanghai Steelhome Information Technology Co. The holdings rose 2.6% to 110.58-million tons, the biggest%age increase in more than a year. They’re up 19% in 2016.

Miners’ shares have been whipsawed by iron-ore’s sudden surge and slump. In Sydney, Fortescue Metals Group Ltd., Australia’s No. 3 shipper, dropped 7.8% last week after a 19% advance the week before. Brazil’s Vale gained 15% in the period to November 11, then lost 6% last week.

The recent surge in prices “has to do with speculation, and trading has since become more rational,” said Dang Man, an analyst at Maike Futures Co. in Xi’an, China. “iron-ore’s fundamentals have never been great. The huge increase in port stockpiles doesn’t bode well.”