International airline body forecasts air passenger traffic to double by 2036

The International Air Transport Association (Iata) has forecast that 7.8-billion people will travel by air in 2036. This will amount to a nearly 100% increase over the figure of 4-billion air passengers expected for this year. This projection is based on an average compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.6%.

“All indicators lead to growing demand for global connectivity,” highlighted Iata director-general and CEO Alexandre de Juniac. “The world needs to prepare for a doubling of passengers in the next 20 years. It is also a huge challenge for governments and industry to ensure we can successfully meet this essential demand.”

“Increasing demand will bring a significant infrastructure challenge,” he stressed. “The solution does not lie in more complex processes or building bigger and bigger airports but in harnessing the power of new technology to move activity off-airport, streamline processes and improve efficiency. Through partnerships within the industry and beyond, we are confident that sustainable solutions for continued growth can be found.”

The major force for growth will be the Asia-Pacific region. China is expected to become the biggest aviation market in the world (replacing the US) around 2022, two years sooner than predicted last year. (“Aviation market” is defined as traffic to, from and within a country or region.) This is because China is growing a little faster, and the US a little slower, than previously expected.

India will rise to third place, and Indonesia to fourth, with the UK falling from third to fifth place, by 2036. (India should overtake the UK in 2025 and Indonesia do the same in 2030.) Turkey will take ninth place in 2036, with Thailand occupying tenth. France will decline to eleventh and Italy to twelfth.

In terms of numbers, China should see 921-million new air passengers, taking its total to 1.5-billion. Passenger numbers should grow by 401-million in the US, to 1.1-billion, by 337-million in India (to 478-million), by 235-million in Indonesia (to 355-million) and by 119-million in Turkey (to 196-million).

In terms of percentage increases, however, the fastest growth will be enjoyed mainly by African markets. Countries such as Benin, Chad, Ethiopia, Gambia, Ivory Coast, Malawi, Mali, Mozambique, Rwanda, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Tanzania, Togo, Uganda and Zambia should see annual average CAGRs of more than 7.2%. This would mean that their markets will double every ten years.