China’s coal bounty to keep prices in check over peak season

China’s abundance of coal is likely to forestall power outages and suppress prices, even as the country heads into what’s typically a peak season for consumption.

Record supply, from domestic mines and imports, and flagging industrial demand have combined to create an “avalanche” of stockpiles, according to the China Coal Transport and Distribution Association. The likelihood of milder weather is also bolstering optimism that power to homes and factories will be uninterrupted over the winter — and adding to the gloom around prices.

“The oversupply problem has become more acute in recent months,” CCTD analyst Han Lei told a briefing on Wednesday. The association expects the benchmark price for heating coal to ease below 800 yuan ($110) a ton in late December or January.

The turnaround of cargoes at ports is about half normal levels, according to CCTD, which shows a lack of urgency among buyers at coal-fired power plants. The weather bureau, meanwhile, is forecasting a warmer winter than usual, which will take the pressure off demand.

Rather than warning on the need to guard against shortages, the authorities have been surprisingly upbeat about their ability to keep the country well-stocked over the colder months. The government’s planning agency has also loosened requirements for next year’s term contracts, indicating a more relaxed approach to supply.

Although output sputtered earlier in the year due to heightened safety concerns, particularly in the top producing province of Shanxi, miners are now back on track, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said in a note. Nationwide coal inventory could climb further into record territory to as high as 670 million tons by the year’s end, according to the bank, from 550 million tons at the close of 2023.

The calmer conditions, in a nation scarred in recent years by power shortages, is testament to Beijing’s success in buttressing energy security. But it’s also yet another indication that all’s not well with the economy. Power consumption rose 4.3% in October, the slowest growth this year at a time when manufacturing and construction should be charging ahead.

That could change if the government amps up its economic stimulus to counter the prospect of a trade war with the incoming Trump administration. But in the meantime, the market is signaling a gentler winter for coal demand that’s likely to persist into next year.